I want to be honest right away: choosing Final Four teams is really difficult. You probably do March Madness brackets every year if you’re reading this, and it’s nearly a given that you’ll miss the majority of your Final Four selections. I’m right there with you, so don’t worry.
Therefore, let me clarify what I’m not doing. The Wisconsin Badgers will not go to the Final Four, I assure you. I applaud those of you who had the audacity to make this forecast.
I’m assuming that the Badgers are the type of squad capable of reaching the Final Four.
And there are four main reasons why I believe they deserve this.
Team of Veterans
Although a number of teams have undoubtedly demonstrated that you can be young and yet win a championship, I continue to believe that teams with a locker room full of seasoned players have an advantage. When things become tough, these teams are more resilient and tend to remain composed.
Jay Wright’s Villanova championship teams and this year’s No. 1 Auburn team, as well as both of the Badgers’ 2010 Final Four teams, suit this archetype. Duke is a clear exception in 2024–2025.
Once more, this aids but does not ensure success. With players like Steven Crowl, John Tonje, Kamari McGee, Max Klesmit, and Carter Gilmore in their fourth or later season, Wisconsin has one of the Big Ten’s oldest squads.
In a close March game, it’s easy to feel good about these men maintaining composure and a straight lip.
Superior Free Throw Shooting
With an impressive 83.3 percent, Wisconsin presently leads NCAA basketball, with John Tonje leading the pack at 91.3 percent. Although it has decreased somewhat recently, the team’s free throw% has been remarkably stable all season.
Even more amazing, though, is that the Badgers would have the best season free throw percentage in NCAA history if the season concluded today. Villanova now holds this record, with 83.0% in 2022.
It’s a different animal, of course, to get that sort of foul shooting when the chips are down in March, but the fact that Wisconsin has done it so well throughout the campaign is encouraging.
Elite Offense on the Borderline
I’ll simply state it. Wisconsin’s offense is adored by the computers. I just adore it. KenPom is particularly devoted, ranking the Badgers as their current No. 7 offense (and No. 8 club overall). Another highly regarded analytics expert, Evan Miya, ranks the Badgers’ offensive at number nine.
Wisconsin’s offensive is ranked No. 13 even by ESPN’s BPI, which has demonstrated a blatant anti-Wisconsin prejudice this season. This is undoubtedly a trend. Basketball games are played on courts, not in computer programs, as I am well aware, but historically, the models have been useful in determining the kind of squad that can run.
Although KenPom ranks Wisconsin’s defense at number 38, the team’s efficiency numbers this year are as similar to those of its generational 2014–15 squad as they have been since that historic year when Wisconsin had the No. 1 offense and No. 35 defense.
Effective Coaching
Greg Gard’s performance in March has fallen short of his regular season performances, so here is where the rubber meets the road. It’s possible that Gard will earn Big Ten Coach of the Year, his third such honor in the previous six seasons.
In that case, Gard would have won half of the Coach of the Year honors in the league since 2019. Objectively, this would be impressive. The NCAA Tournament hasn’t been as kind, though. Gard has missed the second weekend of the tournament after making it to back-to-back Sweet Sixteens in his first two seasons, both of which had the potential to be Elite Eights or more (Note: Gard’s 2020 squad seemed ready for a deep run but COVID ended things).
That is clearly not ideal, and this year’s team is once again under pressure to “prove it.” However, there is something more positive about this season, notably the success of Kirk Penney’s new offensive strategies. Fans were right to be skeptical of Gard in March, but there are indications that this year may be different.
Even though a Wisconsin Final Four team would need to catch a lot of other breaks, like avoiding Duke and Auburn, playing in Milwaukee, and avoiding teams with two good big men, this team seems like it could succeed if healthy and a little bit lucky. I’m crossing my fingers.
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