The Houston Astros, a perennial playoff powerhouse over the past decade, are finding themselves in unfamiliar territory early in the 2025 MLB season. A slow start has them sitting in the lower half of a surprisingly competitive American League West division — and as tough as that is, the situation might get even more complicated. Not only are the Astros struggling to find their usual rhythm, but every team in the AL West looks like a legitimate postseason contender.
The AL West: Baseball’s Unexpected Gauntlet
In most recent seasons, the AL West has had a clear top dog — usually Houston — with a mix of rebuilding and middle-of-the-road teams trailing behind. That script appears to have flipped in 2025. The Los Angeles Angels, once thought to be doomed post-Ohtani, are hanging tough. The Oakland Athletics, after years of struggle, have come out swinging. The Seattle Mariners have turned heads with a hot-starting offense, and the reigning champion Texas Rangers look every bit like a team capable of defending their title.
In other words, there’s no room for error in the AL West this year. And with the Astros already falling behind, the once-unthinkable now seems possible: Houston could be sellers at the trade deadline.
Framber Valdez: A Surprising Trade Candidate
This brings us to ESPN’s David Schoenfield, who recently proposed a prediction that has Astros fans on edge. Schoenfield suggested that the Astros could explore trading their ace, Framber Valdez, if they remain stuck in the standings.
Valdez, a 30-year-old left-hander, has been a cornerstone of Houston’s pitching staff. He’s known for his elite ground-ball rate, playoff poise, and ability to lead a rotation — all of which make him a highly valuable commodity, especially as the deadline approaches. But the clock is ticking. Valdez is on an expiring contract, and the Astros are already navigating financial strain after choosing not to re-sign third baseman Alex Bregman.
The Financial Reality in Houston
Letting Bregman walk was the clearest signal yet that Houston is facing a financial crossroads. It’s no secret that the Astros have spent heavily to maintain their dynasty — with stars like José Altuve, Yordan Álvarez, and Kyle Tucker under big deals or heading that way — but there’s a breaking point. If the Astros couldn’t find the money to bring back Bregman, it’s increasingly unlikely they’ll be able to keep Valdez, especially with the lefty set to cash in on the open market this winter.
That makes Valdez the classic “deadline rental”—a” highly skilled, experienced starter who could instantly bolster a contending team’s postseason rotation.
Historical Precedent and the Value of Valdez
Schoenfield likened a potential Valdez trade to other big midseason pitching deals in recent years — such as Jack Flaherty’s move to Baltimore and Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery heading to Texas, both of whom played pivotal roles in deep playoff runs. Those deals showed how much value a frontline starter can bring, especially when the playoff picture is murky and injuries start to mount for contenders.
Valdez could easily bring back a haul of three to four top-30 prospects, depending on the buying team. That’s a strong return for a player the Astros may not be able to retain anyway — and if their playoff odds continue to plummet, it’s the kind of pragmatic move a front office has to consider, even if it’s painful.
Would the Astros Actually Do It?
On the surface, trading Valdez would seem like an admission that the Astros’ championship window is closing. But in truth, it might just be a reshuffling. Teams like the Dodgers and Braves have shown how aggressive roster management — including the occasional painful trade — can extend contention windows rather than end them.
The Astros have a solid farm system and a front office that has proven it can find value in unexpected places. Moving Valdez might hurt in the short term, but it could open opportunities to replenish the organization with fresh, controllable talent.
What Would a Trade Look Like?
Assuming the Astros do pull the trigger, where could Valdez land?
- Los Angeles Dodgers—Always in the market for pitching, especially after recent injuries.
- Baltimore Orioles—Still searching for a veteran arm to stabilize a young rotation.
- New York Yankees— If healthy, they’re going for it. Valdez could slot in behind Gerrit Cole.
- Cincinnati Reds—A breakout team that may want to capitalize while their young core is ascending.
- Philadelphia Phillies—Looking for playoff redemption, and pitching is a priority.
Any of these teams could offer a package of promising prospects in exchange for Valdez’s services, especially if he continues to perform well over the next couple of months.
Final Thoughts: The Uncomfortable Truth
Houston fans aren’t used to this kind of conversation. Over the past seven years, the Astros have consistently been buyers at the trade deadline — whether to land a bat like Yuli Gurriel or a starter like Justin Verlander. But 2025 may require a change in approach.
The Astros aren’t doomed. They still have a talented core, and one hot month could flip the narrative. But if the standings don’t shift, and if they fall behind the rest of the AL West pack, trading Framber Valdez might not just be a bold move — it could be a necessary one.
And for a franchise that has always emphasized sustainability and long-term success, dealing Valdez for future assets might just be the uncomfortable, forward-thinking choice they have to make.
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