Braves’ $773 Million Gamble: Did Alex Anthopoulos Bet on the Wrong Core?
Over the last half-decade, Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves have handed out more than $773 million in contract extensions — and it’s becoming increasingly clear that Atlanta may have locked up the wrong players.
At the time, many around the league praised Anthopoulos for inking young talent to long-term, team-friendly deals. Some even accused the organization of exploiting players in exchange for long-term security. But what was too often overlooked was the inherent risk in these kinds of deals — and now, that risk is manifesting in full.
Let’s start with the positives, because they’re short and sweet.
✅ The Hits
Ronald Acuña Jr.—8 – 8 years, $100M
Even with two ACL tears, Acuña’s contract remains one of the biggest bargains in baseball. The reigning 2024 NL MVP has returned to form again in 2025, carrying an OPS north of 1.000 and a .333 average with four homers in just 12 games. He’s the face of the franchise, and he’s earning every penny.
Chris Sale – 2 years, $38M
Anthopoulos’ gamble on Sale has paid off in a big way. In his debut season, he won the NL Triple Crown and Cy Young, and in 2025, he’s sporting a 2.93 ERA with a 1.43 ERA over his last eight starts. For just $38 million, this deal is a masterclass.
But that’s where the unquestioned wins stop.
❌ The Misses (and Maybes)
Austin Riley—10 – 10 years, $212M
Riley’s 2022 breakout (141 OPS+, 38 HR) made him look like a franchise cornerstone. Even 2023 supported the case, with 37 homers and another top-10 MVP finish. But since then?
Riley’s 2024 campaign was derailed by injury and regression, and 2025 hasn’t been much better. His current OPS+ is just 13% above league average — a steep drop from his 2021–2023 dominance (OPS+ of 135). For the highest-paid player in franchise history, this isn’t close to enough.
The power is still there, and Riley’s track record suggests a turnaround is possible, but fans are right to be concerned — especially as he continues to shrink in big moments.
Matt Olson – 8 years, $168M
Olson’s 2023 season was otherworldly: a .283 average, franchise-record 54 home runs, and a 164 OPS+. But that version of Olson is starting to look like an outlier.
In his three other seasons in Atlanta, including 2025, Olson’s OPS+ is just about 16% above league average — and his batting average sits barely above .240. While solid, that production doesn’t justify his contract, especially when compared to Freddie Freeman, who continues to rake for the Dodgers.
Anthopoulos knew the Freeman comparison would follow Olson forever — and so far, that bet hasn’t aged well.
Spencer Strider—6 years, $75M
The Braves bet on youth with Strider, extending him early instead of retaining Max Fried. So far, that gamble is backfiring.
Coming off InternalBrace surgery, Strider’s 2025 has been rough: a 5.68 ERA and diminished velocity, sitting around 95 mph with shaky command. Meanwhile, Max Fried is thriving in New York with a 1.92 ERA and looks like a Cy Young favorite.
Strider may eventually rebound — and his contract still carries upside — but expecting him to seamlessly replace Fried was a risky (and so far, flawed) assumption by the front office.
Sean Murphy—6 years, $73M
Murphy’s situation is more nuanced. He was brilliant in 2023 (127 OPS+), struggled with injury and usage in 2024, and has rebounded in 2025 with a 122 OPS+.
The contract isn’t bad, but the question is, was it necessary? Atlanta had catching depth (William Contreras, Drake Baldwin) and bigger holes elsewhere. Murphy’s deal isn’t a disaster — but in hindsight, that money may have been better used on the rotation or shortstop.
Michael Harris II – 8 years, $72M
Of all the young players Atlanta extended, Harris might be the most concerning. After a strong rookie year, he’s fallen off hard in 2025, sporting an ugly 63 OPS+, which is 37% below league average.
Harris is still young, and his defensive value remains, but the Braves need more from someone they projected as a long-term fixture in the outfield.
Ozzie Albies – 7 years, $35M
This was once considered the most team-friendly contract in MLB. Now? Still not a disaster, but no longer the steal it once was.
Albies entered 2025 with a career OPS+ about 10% above average. This season, it’s 18% below average. Thankfully for Atlanta, the deal is cheap and expires in 2027. The downside here is limited, but the production dip is hard to ignore.
❓ The Bigger Picture
None of these contracts were risk-free — and in professional sports, none ever are. But it’s now fair to ask: Did Alex Anthopoulos back the wrong core?
In letting Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, and Max Fried walk, the Braves doubled down on players like Riley, Olson, Strider, and Harris. That strategy once looked like the model for sustainable success. Now, with the Braves in a 2025 free fall, the flaws are glaring.
There’s still time for some of these players to rebound. But if they don’t — or if this downturn becomes the new normal — the Braves may be staring at an expensive, self-inflicted identity crisis.
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