Aaron Judge’s Home Run Performance and Betting Odds
Aaron Judge, the New York Yankees’ prominent slugger, commenced the 2025 MLB season with an impressive six home runs in his initial seven games. However, his momentum slowed, recording only one home run over the subsequent three weeks. Recently, Judge’s performance has shown signs of resurgence, with home runs in two of his last three games. This uptick has caught the attention of MLB oddsmakers, who are aware of Judge’s tendency to hit home runs in clusters. For the upcoming game against the Orioles, scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, DraftKings Sportsbook has adjusted Judge’s home run odds to +205.
Evaluating Judge’s Betting Value
The question arises: has Judge’s betting value diminished to the point where he should be excluded from MLB home run picks? With a plethora of MLB prop bets available for nearly every player and game, SportsLine’s established computer model offers insights to identify valuable additions to MLB home run picks.
This model conducts 10,000 simulations for each game and has achieved a 17-11 record on all top-rated MLB picks since the season’s start. Notably, it successfully predicted all three of its home run bets last Wednesday, resulting in a +9360 parlay. Over the past 22 days, the model has accurately forecasted a home run prop on 13 occasions, yielding a profit of 31.6 units. Currently, the model and SportsLine’s data scientists have disclosed their projections for some of the most wagered MLB home run prop bets for Tuesday. These three selections can be combined into a parlay with +11358 odds, potentially returning $572.88 on a $5 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (+255, previously +320)
At 34, Ozuna is a three-time MLB All-Star demonstrating exceptional plate discipline. He boasts a .295/.452/.500 slash line and leads the National League with 26 walks. Having hit five home runs in 88 at-bats this season, following 40 home runs in 2023 and 39 in 2024, Ozuna benefits from playing at Coors Field, known for its hitter-friendly conditions.
“Ozuna went 0-for-5 yesterday, but Coors wasn’t playing as hitter-friendly yesterday as it is expected to today. Still, Ozuna squared up the ball in several at-bats, as he had three of those at-bats result in 95+ mph exit velocities,” noted SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner. “We set the line at +225 for Ozuna to hit an HR today, so you are getting solid value at +320 on FanDuel.”
Zachary Neto, Los Angeles Angels (+520)
The former first-round pick recorded 23 home runs in his first full MLB season last year. Since returning from the injured list earlier this month, Neto has appeared more confident at the plate, achieving a .982 OPS over 10 games and five extra-base hits in his last five games.
“Neto had a late start to the season after dealing with an injury, but he has settled in nicely and has three home runs over his last eight games. Neto is 9-for-20 (.450) in his last five games, so he is seeing the ball well,” Fetner commented. The model sets its line at +380 for Neto, with FanDuel offering the best value at +520 odds.
Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers (+350)
Carpenter, a left-handed hitter, has been strategically utilized by the Tigers against right-handed pitchers, yielding positive results. He has already homered in the first two games of the series against the Astros and is slated to lead off again tonight against another right-handed pitcher in Houston.
“Carpenter has a career OPS of .893 against RHPs and has hit 45 of his 51 career HRs against righties,” Fetner stated. “Today he is facing a rookie RHP (AJ Blubaugh) making his MLB debut.” While BetMGM offers the best line here, the optimal odds for the MLB HR parlay are available with Carpenter at +340 from FanDuel.
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